Every college football season, ESPN puts together a College Football Power Index that ranks teams in various categories by week. ESPN has released its preseason Power Index, so let’s see how BYU stacks up in the first 2022 edition.
Credit: BYU Photo
Note: The definitions of these metrics come from ESPN’s CFB Power Index page.
FPI
Definition: Expected point margin vs average opponent on neutral field.
BYU: 5.1 meaning BYU would beat an average opponent by five points on a neutral field. 5.1 puts BYU narrowly inside the top 50 of college football at #46.
Four of BYU’s 12 2022 opponents are ranked ahead of the Cougars in the preseason FPI.
BYU’s 2022 Schedule (Name, FPI Ranking)
September 3rd – @ USF Bulls #90
September 10th – vs Baylor Bears #19
September 17th – @ Oregon Ducks #23
September 24th – vs Wyoming Cowboys #94
September 30th – vs Utah State Aggies #88
October 8th – vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish (neutral site in Las Vegas) #5
October 15th – vs Arkansas Razorbacks #29
October 22nd – @ Liberty Flames #76
October 29th – vs East Carolina Pirates #78
November 5th – @ Boise State Broncos #47
November 19th – vs Dixie Tech Trailblazers NA
November 26th – @ Stanford Cardinal #61
The New Big 12
Of the 14 teams that will be in the Big 12 in 2023, BYU ranks no. 10 out of 14.
Members of the 2023 Big 12 ranked by FPI:
Texas: #6
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Oklahoma: #8
Oklahoma State: #13
Baylor: #19
Iowa State: #27
Cincinnati: #32
UCF: #33
Kansas State: #39
TCU: #42
BYU: #47
Texas Tech: #48
Houston: #49
West Virginia: #52
Kansas: #97
As of the time of this article, Texas and Oklahoma are still scheduled to be in the Big 12 until 2025. That could change if they buyout their current agreement with the Big 12 Conference.
Projected Win/Loss Record
Definition: Projected overall W-L accounting for results to date and FPI-based projections.
BYU: 7.0-5.0. BYU is expected to go 7-5 according to ESPN FPI’s preseason projections. Even though the Cougars return a lot of experience in 2022, FPI is not very high on BYU’s chances of winning double-digit games for a third consecutive season.
The Cougars will face three preseason FPI top 25 teams: Notre Dame (#5), Baylor (#19), Oregon (#23). Arkansas narrowly missed the top 25 – the Razorbacks ranked #29 in the preseason FPI.
Win Out %
Definition: Percentage of simulations in which team won all remaining scheduled games.
BYU: 0.1%. BYU has a 0.1% chance to go undefeated against its entire schedule according to ESPN FPI.
6 Wins %
Definition: Percentage of simulations in which team won at least six games.
BYU: 84.9%. BYU has a 84.9% chance to go 6-6 or better against their current schedule.
Playoff %
Definition: Chances of making the CFB Playoff according to the playoff predictor.
BYU: 0.0%. FPI gives BYU no chance to make the College Football Playoff. That’s not unique to BYU, however. Every team outside the top 23 has a 0.4% chance or less to make the playoff. This is why College Football needs an expanded playoff. Before the season has even started, over 100 teams have less than 1% chance of making the four-team playoff, and the majority of teams have 0% chance according to FPI.